MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0381
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SAT APR 09 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW VA...WRN/CNTRL NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110...
   
   VALID 090723Z - 090830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 110
   CONTINUES.
   
   ...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   DIMINISHING...
   
   WNWLY H9-H85 JET AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SWD AS WEAK
   MID-LEVEL WAVE PASSES BY THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
   GENERATION POINT TO THE ELEVATED UPDRAFTS HAS CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTED
   SEWD INTO NERN TN AND WRN/CNTRL NC...BEYOND SEVERE WATCH 110. 
   INSPECTION OF RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODEST MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-6.8 C PER KM AND WEAK AMOUNTS OF WARM ADVECTION
   MAY AID IN BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 
   HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE SVR THREAT IS WANING WITH TIME AND
   PROBABILITY FOR NEW WATCHES/EXTENSIONS IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/09/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
   
   LAT...LON   37378102 36437975 35277910 35197987 35328081 35538165
               35898209 36498230 36878250 37108147 37378102