MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0365
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 AM CDT TUE APR 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...EXTREME ERN SC.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...
   
   VALID 051108Z - 051315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 103 CONTINUES.
   
   WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY SQUALL LINE.  SVR THREAT OTHERWISE
   CONTINUES UNTIL ACTIVITY MOVES OFFSHORE.
   
   QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WIND AND MEASURED SVR
   GUSTS IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH 14Z...LAST AREAS AFFECTED
   BEING OUTER BANKS.  PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN DAMAGING
   GUSTS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF QLCS TORNADO OR TWO STILL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT.  FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY INLAND...WITH
   LAPSE RATES ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOIST-ADIABATIC...BUT WITH BUOYANCY
   INCREASING IN PROXIMITY TO RELATIVELY HIGH-THETAE WARM-SECTOR AIR
   OVER OUTER BANKS.  MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG SHOULD OCCUR OVER ERN
   FRINGES OF WW AREA...AMIDST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  MORE
   DISCRETE CELLS ARE EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY AND IR IMAGERY OFFSHORE
   NC..IN GULF-STREAM CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT COMMONLY DEVELOPS BETWEEN
   ATLANTIC HIGH AND STG SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS OVER ERN CONUS.  THIS
   CONVERGENCE ZONE IS TRANSLATING SLOWLY EWD...AND MOST OF THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN E OF OUTER BANKS.  HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
   SUPERCELL WITH ATTENDANT WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY MOVE ACROSS THIS
   REGION BETWEEN MARINE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND PRIMARY QLCS AS MESOBETA
   SCALE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   36547586 36247576 35667543 35327548 35147552 35217561
               35117591 34817637 34507656 34617657 34707687 34467742
               34197779 33977791 33787796 33877807 33727885 35067821
               35847682 36547586