MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0559 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 032259Z - 040000Z
   
   TSTM WILL INCREASE...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS CNTRL/NERN KS AND
   EVENTUALLY NWRN MO.  SHOULD STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED... THREATS FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A LOW
   PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES.  WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY; 50-70 PERCENT. 
   
   TOWERING CUMULUS OVER DICKENSON COUNTY KS APPEARS TO BE A SIGN OF
   STORM INITIATION...LOCATED JUST N OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. 
   20Z SPECIAL TOP SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
   CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES
   THIS EVENING...PROBABILITY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG/N OF THE FRONT
   WILL INCREASE.  
   
   VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO THE
   NEARLY 9 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND 45 KTS OF VERTICAL
   SHEAR.  PARCELS MAY NEED THE BOOST FROM THE FRONT TO REACH
   LFC...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS.  HOWEVER...IF A STORM
   CAN INITIATE RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING. 
   THEREAFTER...ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH RESPECT TO THE WSWLY
   VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE ESE INTO NWRN MO/ECNTRL KS
   LATER THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BOWS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 04/03/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   LAT...LON   38499788 38969769 39649615 39949494 39659427 38909444
               38259524 37939701 37899810 38469791 38499788