MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 81...
   
   VALID 312222Z - 312345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 81 CONTINUES.
   
   AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
   EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA. WW ISSUANCE TO
   REPLACE WW 81 WILL BE CONSIDERED AS THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCH APPROACHES.
   
   A SLOW MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITH SOME STRONGER
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS LOCATED IN CNTRL FL ORIENTED PARALLEL TO A 40
   TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE AIRMASS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1200 TO 1800
   J/KG/ AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT. THIS
   COMBINED 30 TO 40 KT OF FLOW JUST BELOW 1 KM AGL EVIDENT ON THE
   WSR-88D VWP FROM MELBOURNE FL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE
   THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH
   THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS VEERED WLY...ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR EXISTS IN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THE THREAT MAY
   PERSIST BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION AND WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED
   ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE CAN INTENSIFY AND REORGANIZE EARLY THIS
   EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/31/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
   LAT...LON   28308278 28318048 26577994 26568219 28308278