MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0526 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL/CNTRL
   MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 292226Z - 300030Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL TX...SRN AR...NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL
   MS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INITIATE AND DEEPEN ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NERN/E-CNTRL TX INTO NRN LA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD AREA OF
   LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT DRAPED
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION IS NOTED WITHIN A 30-MILE-WIDE ZONE CENTERED ALONG A LINE
   FROM 40 MILES NNE OF LFK TO 35 MILES SW OF MLU...WHICH COINCIDES
   WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EVIDENT IN KINEMATIC FIELDS BASED
   ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
   MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING KS/OK EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. AS
   WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD LAYER CONTINUES AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
   WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J PER KG OVERSPREADING THE DISCUSSION
   AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY WITH
   TIME. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT...POTENTIALLY YIELDING ELEVATED SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 72.
   
   ..COHEN.. 03/29/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   33249393 33539280 33939116 33878953 32828926 32379003
               32199122 32029191 31709304 31489419 31669469 32189508
               32919475 33249393