MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0512 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN FL PANHANDLE / NRN FL PENINSULA / FAR SRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 282212Z - 282315Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE...NRN FL PENINSULA...AND FAR SRN
   GA. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS AT 20Z DEPICTS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR NRN
   FL PENINSULA EXTENDING INTO A LOW 20 MILES NE OF PFN...WITH A COLD
   FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS
   OF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SFC LOW
   HAS RESULTED IN RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION...INCLUDING SPLITTING
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...OVER LIBERTY/CALHOUN COUNTIES. THE LEFT
   MEMBER RECENTLY PRODUCED QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR BLOUNTSTOWN IN
   CALHOUN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE
   SHORT-TERM...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   COULD SUPPORT OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED STORM /SUPERCELLULAR/
   STRUCTURES. AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INVOF THE WARM FRONT...WHERE
   GREATER LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
   LOW COVERAGE OF STORMS...A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
   
   ..COHEN.. 03/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30048200 29848388 29788526 30608561 30968461 31008233
               30048200