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Mesoscale Discussion 289 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CENTRAL AL/WRN AND CENTRAL GA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 65...
VALID 270421Z - 270515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 65 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WW
65 INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEWD TRACK OF ONGOING ACTIVITY
HAS WARRANTED A SWD EXPANSION OF THIS WATCH ACROSS CENTRAL AL.
AT 0410Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
EXTENDING WWD FROM NORTH CENTRAL GA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AL TO NERN
MS. THE ACTIVITY OVER NERN AL /INVOF ANB/ WAS LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO WEST CENTRAL GA
AND THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL GA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TRAILED
WSWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH CENTRAL MS TO NRN LA. WARM SECTOR ACROSS
WW 65 REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /45-50
KT/ MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN THE ONGOING ORGANIZED STORMS.
WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL/SRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA...WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VALUES /ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AL WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES ARE 500-700 M2 PER S2/. THUS...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL
CONTINUE...WHILE SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE WARM
FRONT SUGGEST BOWING SEGMENTS/DAMAGING WIND WILL BE A THREAT AS
WELL. THIS LATTER THREAT WILL BE EVEN GREATER IF A COLD POOL CAN
BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
ACROSS THIS REGION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTS THE MCS
POTENTIAL...GIVEN RECENT COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY FROM NRN AL INTO NWRN GA.
..PETERS.. 03/27/2011
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 32778214 31898223 31758334 31958468 32438527 32728635
32778714 33208790 33578825 34368815 34328718 33898701
34228646 34148625 34468548 34088541 34118427 33808403
33458355 33388317 33418290 33308275 33288234 33118220
32858225 32778214
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