MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0320 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK...SE KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 222020Z - 222145Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL OK NNEWD INTO SE
   KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...LARGE HAIL AND FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE WHICH IS ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD
   ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SBCAPE VALUES
   ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1200 TO 1800 J/KG BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED
   WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN STORM INITIATION.
   HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THE CONVECTIVE
   THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...STRONG
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN 70 TO 85 KT
   MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS MAY
   DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF AN UPDRAFT CAN MATURE IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
   FORCING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
   THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36329591 35079668 34709716 34629758 34629804 34869822
               35149814 36239781 37059759 37329750 37509735 37549699
               37489630 37159590 36329591