MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0246
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0119 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...ERN AND CNTRL KS...WRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 221819Z - 222015Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEB AND ECNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND
   BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED...LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES AND
   ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE WILL BECOME
   NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 994 MB LOW OVER ERN NEB WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN IA AND ESEWD ACROSS SRN IA. SOUTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S F AND AN AXIS OF
   INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE FROM NEAR OMAHA SSWWD INTO NCNTRL KS WHERE
   SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED BETWEEN 500 TO 1200 J/KG. A CAPPING
   INVERSION CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS BUT THE CAP IS
   FORECAST TO WEAK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORM
   INITIATION FROM JUST WEST OF OMAHA SSWWD TO NEAR SALINA KS AROUND
   20Z. AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 70 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
   THE REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH A TORNADO THREAT ALSO
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS SUPERCELLS MATURE AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/22/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
   
   LAT...LON   40649769 39059791 37959736 37659601 38029443 40539435
               41929507 42429574 42519697 41599747 41169758 40649769