MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN MO...SRN/ERN KS...OK N OF I-40.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51...
   
   VALID 191632Z - 191830Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 51
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONTINUE WW.  ADDITIONAL WW OR ADDED COUNTIES MAY BE NEEDED BY
   MID-AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL MO AND/OR NERN KS AROUND NERN
   FRINGE OF WW 51.  IN NEAR TERM...ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL FROM
   LEFT-MOVING CELLS MAY EXTEND N OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS NERN KS THROUGH
   19Z...THOUGH BULK OF SVR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN S OF I-70 THROUGH
   18Z.  THREAT REMAINS HAIL...THOUGH STG-SVR GUSTS COULD BECOME
   POSSIBLE OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF CURRENT WW AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN TWO PRIMARY AREAS...
   
   1. DEVELOPING/ELEVATED MCS OVER NERN OK AND ERN KS...WITH EMBEDDED
   TSTMS THAT HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL DURING MORE
   DISCRETE STAGES.  ERN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY HAVE SHOWN GEN
   WEAKENING TREND WHILE MOVING INTO WEAKER LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE AND
   BUOYANCY OVER KS/MO BORDER REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
   BOOST THETAE IN PROSPECTIVE/ELEVATED INFLOW REGIME OVER WRN MO WITH
   TIME.
   2. PERSISTENT BUT INITIALLY NON-SEVERE TSTM CLUSTER MOVING EWD AND
   EXPANDING NEWD FROM TX/OK PANHANDLES ACROSS PORTIONS NW OK AND
   S-CENTRAL KS.  IR IMAGERY ACTUALLY HAS SHOWN CONSISTENTLY COLDER
   CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO PROGRESSIVELY
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REGIME ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL
   KS.  MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
   DEVELOP OVER PANHANDLE AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
   IN WRN OK...JUST OFF SWRN FRINGES OF WW AREA.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACROSS SERN AND
   S-CENTRAL OK...AMIDST BOTH ADVECTIVE AND VERTICAL-MIXING PROCESSES. 
   CLOUD COVER AND RESULTANT SHADING MAY DIFFUSE/SUPPRESS MIXING
   EFFECTS OVER MUCH OF WRN OK UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
   EFFECTIVELY ARCH-SHAPED FRONTAL ZONE IN NEAR TERM...BOWING NWD OVER
   CENTRAL OK AND TOWARD SRN END OF WRN COMPLEX.  ALTHOUGH ROBUST
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL MAINTAIN STG CAPPING ALONG AND S OF WARM
   FRONT...SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS MAY BECOME AVAILABLE TO CENTRAL/NRN
   OK CONVECTION BEFORE 21Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   36289463 35869582 35629757 35509918 35959952 36979994
               37299859 38099824 39059753 39249628 39269479 39059392
               38079343 36839386 36289463