MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191030Z - 191300Z
   
   ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE -- AND POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   -- OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
   FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.  WW NOT EXPECTED AS THREAT FOR
   SEVERE-SIZED HAIL APPEARS LIMITED/LOCAL.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS STORMS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ACROSS NERN OK AND NWD TO THE VICINITY OF THE KS
   BORDER...AS 35 TO 40KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
   ERN HALF OF OK.  EVENING /05Z/ LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB REVEALS STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG CAPE ABOVE AN INVERSION NEAR
   H8...AND THIS DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH
   MODEL FORECASTS OF A SWATH OF 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   
   ALONG WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
   THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IS YIELDING SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
   UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/WEAK ROTATION...AS EVIDENT IN A FEW STRONGER
   CELLS ATTM.  GIVEN THIS...THREAT FOR HAIL IS LIKELY -- AND MAY
   PERHAPS REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/19/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36579337 36459364 35869466 36279649 36809735 37409689
               37689381 37009346 36579337