MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NRN CA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 180735Z - 181000Z
   
   ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
   MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF
   LOCAL GUSTS NEAR -- OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING -- SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS CONTINUES
   APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST...AND REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. 
   THOUGH LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED OFFSHORE OVER THE PAST
   HOUR...MODIFYING NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SUGGESTS
   INSTABILITY GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.  THIS IS ALSO
   CONFIRMED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...REVEALING ONLY OFFSHORE CAPE.  
   
   HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE /EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
   BETWEEN 0830 AND 0900 Z/ AND GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
   CONVECTION...A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS INLAND.  ANY
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH...IS EXPECTED REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- THUS NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EKA...
   
   LAT...LON   41652471 41902434 41832401 41292389 41062398 40842398
               40562417 40202416 39522430 39102528 39832517 40192492
               40662496 41102475 41622477 41652471