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Mesoscale Discussion 225 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NW AR AND NE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140415Z - 140615Z
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING STORM COVERAGE. THIS IS MOSTLY
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A WEAK BUT DEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE...MUCH OF WHICH IS NOW BECOMING UNDERCUT BY A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT WHICH HAS ADVANCED SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABOVE THE STABLE
SURFACE LAYER...PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE VIGOR OF
ONGOING STORMS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
ORGANIZE NEAR THE FRONT...IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR ALONG
THE WEST EDGE OF A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND WESTERN ARKANSAS BETWEEN 06-09Z. HOWEVER...EVEN IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS...A RELATIVELY COOL...STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER.
FARTHER SOUTH...FRONTAL FORCING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY
EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER
THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY 09Z. INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL...BUT
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR...COUPLED WITH THE TENDENCY
FOR CONVECTION TO EITHER FORM JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...OR BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY IT...SHOULD MINIMIZE THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 03/14/2011
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 33429686 34319618 36119503 36479396 36279272 34939265
32319536 32229727 33429686
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