MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SC...ERN NC...CNTRL AND SERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 101751Z - 101945Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND COULD INCREASE WITH SHALLOW
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN NC AND CNTRL/SRN VA.
   
   
   LINE OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST EAST OF A
   PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT FROM SRN VA SWD THROUGH W-CNTRL NC THROUGH
   E-CNTRL SC. ANOTHER LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS INCREASING
   FROM THE GULF STREAM NWD THROUGH SERN NC. ZONE OF FRONTAL FORCING
   WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A STRONG NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500
   J/KG...AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYER DEPTH SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY NOT
   PRODUCE MUCH LIGHTNING. DESPITE LACK OF DIABATIC WARMING...SOME
   INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR AS THE CONVECTION INTERCEPTS MOIST
   AXIS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND SRN VA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F.
   STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 40-50 KT FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY
   PROMOTE BOWING SEGMENTS AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   WITHIN THE HEAVIER...FORCED LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/10/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   34147950 37397962 38027793 36127731 33987852 34147950