MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0194
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1106 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THRU ERN
   VIRGINIA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 061706Z - 061830Z
   
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A SURFACE LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING ALONG A SURFACE FRONT TO
   THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT
   WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES. 
   THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE ACROSS
   THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TOWARD THE DANVILLE VA AREA BETWEEN NOW AND
   20-21Z...PRECEDED BY A 50-60 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE ACROSS
   CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA.  AN INFLUX OF
   MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.25
   INCHES/ IS ONGOING ALONG THIS AXIS...BUT WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
   LARGELY SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...AND TENDING TOWARD MOIST
   ADIABATIC...DESTABILIZATION IS VERY WEAK.  
   
   HOWEVER...THIN SPOTS/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARM
   SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. 
   EVEN THOUGH CAPE MAY NOT EXCEED A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG ...COUPLED
   WITH MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IT MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... AND
   PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS DOES OCCUR...POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...GIVEN THE
   HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...
   
   LAT...LON   34467813 35187869 36107853 37277803 39037715 38437645
               37817631 36017568 35327581 34637639 34307740 34467813