MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CST SAT MAR 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...
   
   VALID 060112Z - 060245Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 40 CONTINUES.
   
   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   OR TWO WILL PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS MAINLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF
   THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   THIS EVENING A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM A MESO-LOW IN
   SWRN AL NEAR THE FL BORDER SWD INTO THE NERN GULF MOVING EAST AT 30
   KT. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THE HIGHER
   THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND GREATER INSTABILITY REMAIN OFFSHORE
   WITH MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG INLAND FROM COAST. LIGHTNING TRENDS
   CONFIRM A WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INLAND WITH MOST STRIKES
   CONFINED TO PORTION OF LINE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST. ACTIVITY
   IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH LARGE 0-1 KM
   HODOGRAPHS. LEWP STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OFF THE COAST OF
   FL...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
   AND A TORNADO OR TWO ESPECIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDDLE FL
   PANHANDLE WHERE THE TERRAIN BENDS FARTHER SWD.
   
   THE 00Z TALLAHASSEE SOUNDING WAS SAMPLED EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS
   AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. MODEST DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR
   FARTHER EAST DUE TO LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY
   WILL PROBABLY BE FOR LINE TO WEAKEN AS IT ADVANCES EWD LATER THIS
   EVENING. WATCH DECISION DOWNSTREAM FROM CURRENT WW WILL ULTIMATELY
   DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 03/06/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   31618600 31488530 30588497 29798529 29668595 30438649
               30968686 31418681 31618600