MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0840 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE LA...PARTS OF SRN MS AND SWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051440Z - 051545Z
   
   A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   TEXAS...A STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...MAXIMIZED ALONG A BROAD
   COASTAL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  COUPLED WITH A
   MODEST INFLOW OF MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO /CHARACTERIZED BY
   UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS...PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 1.5
   INCHES/...THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND AN EXPAND
   CLUSTER OF STORMS.  MOST UNSTABLE CAPE APPEARS TO BE IN EXCESS OF
   1000 J/KG...AND...IN THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE DEEP LAYER
   MEAN FLOW /30-40 KT/ AND SHEAR...THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RISK FOR STRONG... POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS MAY TRANSITION FROM A LOCALIZED TO BROADER SCALE AS
   ACTIVITY APPROACHES LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE NEW ORLEANS
   METROPOLITAN AREA BY 17-19Z.  LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT
   PARTICULARLY LARGE...BUT SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH...GIVEN HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/HUMIDITIES...TO PROMOTE THE RISK FOR AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/05/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   30419245 30889159 31218942 31188827 30408759 29388775
               28888844 28928982 29409249 30419245