MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0183
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 041752Z - 042015Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
   BY 20-21Z.
   
   A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING AS AN
   INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY BASED WITHIN AN AREA OF
   ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...TO THE NORTH OF
   FAIRLY SHARP SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
   THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS WEST
   CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE KANSAS CITY METRO...INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.  CAPE ABOVE A DEEPENING
   SURFACE BASED INVERSION LAYER COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME
   SMALL HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IN
   GENERAL...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW.
   
   HOWEVER...A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
   MISSOURI...PERHAPS ADJACENT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
   ARKANSAS...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MOISTENING WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MID-LEVEL
   INHIBITION.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUC...IS
   SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE INITIATION OF STORMS AS
   EARLY AS 20-21Z...PARTICULARLY FROM AROUND SPRINGFIELD NORTHWARD
   INTO THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS AREA.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...COINCIDENT
   WITH STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30
   KTS...BENEATH 30-50 KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A
   TORNADO OR TWO...AS WELL.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   37349474 38509374 38559291 38269248 37339250 36589313
               36379351 36259440 36519489 36979484 37349474