MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CST MON FEB 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 282316Z - 010045Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL OCCUR
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SERN MS...SRN AL...AND
   WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT. A WW IS POSSIBLE.
   
   A SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM CNTRL AL ACROSS SERN MS AND INTO SERN
   LA WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
   AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
   DEGREES ARE SUPPORTING SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER 22Z RUC
   ANALYSIS. AS SUCH...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INITIATE AND DEEPEN
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AL AND SERN MS.
   MODERATE TO STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
   SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-55 KT...WHICH WILL
   FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS INVOF
   THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A PRIMARY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
   SPEED SHEAR IN PLACE /20-30 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR PER RUC
   ANALYSIS/...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS WILL
   ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF THE SFC
   BOUNDARY...WHERE SFC FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE BACKED YIELDING
   GREATER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
   
   ..COHEN.. 02/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
   
   LAT...LON   31618865 32028751 31988615 32148541 31898508 31328510
               30918515 30478546 30348630 30268742 30328888 31058910
               31618865