MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0431 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WRN AND NRN WV...SERN AND ERN OH AND SWRN
   PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 281031Z - 281100Z
   
   A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR ERN KY NEWD THROUGH
   WRN/NRN WV...SERN/ERN OH...AND MAY BE NEEDED INTO SWRN PA. 
   
   EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   LOCATED OVER FAR NERN OH AT 10Z...WITH THIS ATTENDANT TO A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ATTM.  MESOSCALE
   ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
   SUB-SYNOPTIC SURFACE LOW WAS TRACKING EWD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KY
   AT 1015Z...WITH THIS FEATURE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING
   SWWD FROM THE NERN OH LOW TO NERN AR.  PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE RISES AND HEAVY RAINFALL /COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT/ IN THE
   WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ENHANCING EWD MOVEMENT OF EMBEDDED LINE
   SEGMENTS/BOWS FROM NRN INTO WRN KY.
   
   STRONG SWLY LLJ EXTENDING ACROSS THE TN TO UPPER OH VALLEYS IS
   SUPPORTING THE TRANSPORT OF A UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS NWD
   BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN A
   DESTABILIZING AIR MASS /MODERATE INSTABILITY/.  STRONG EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR /45-60 KT/ ORIENTED ACROSS THE QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO
   FAVOR BOTH BOWING LINES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF
   THE LLJ /60-70 KT/ ENHANCING SRH VALUES...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   LAT...LON   40498156 41048033 40487952 39437974 37618148 36798326
               36628495 38368383 40498156