MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0232 AM CST MON FEB 28 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN IND AND SWRN/WEST CENTRAL
   INTO NRN/NERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 27...28...
   
   VALID 280832Z - 280930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 27...28...CONTINUES.
   
   CONCERN INCREASING FOR BOTH TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS AS A
   SERIES OF FAST MOVING /55-60 KT/ LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ENEWD ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD
   FROM THE CENTRAL IND SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL OH /ACROSS NRN EXTENT
   OF WW 28/.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS IS MORE STABLE /GREATER SURFACE
   BASED CINH N OF THE WARM FRONT/...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NWD.  THUS...WW 28 HAS BEEN
   LOCALLY EXTENDED IN AREAL COVERAGE TO THE N AND NE.
   
   MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED A SECOND BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW NEWD THROUGH NWRN OH AND ACROSS
   LAKE ERIE.  PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS OH SUPPORT THE
   LOW TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL OH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
   MONDAY MORNING...AS SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAINTAIN A MOIST/UNSTABLE
   WARM SECTOR.  AT 0810Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED TWO
   PARALLEL LINES OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM MARION COUNTY OH WSWWD TO NRN
   JOHNSON COUNTY INDIANA.  WITHIN EACH OF THESE LINES AND BETTER
   DEFINED WITH THE NRN LINE...RADAR INDICATED A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
   LINE SEGMENTS...SOME WITH ROTATION.  
   
   SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL REMAIN A LIKELIHOOD ALONG AND S OF THE
   WARM FRONT WHERE INHIBITION IS WEAKER...AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WITH 100-200 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH AN
   ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE
   FAST MOVING STORMS.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG AND
   JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW TRACK WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR
   WILL BE ENHANCED.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
   
   LAT...LON   41308101 39118179 38638307 38788483 38688634 39368665
               40268492 40658435 40878355 41268328 41308101