MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0156
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN KS...CNTRL/SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 280103Z - 280230Z
   
   00Z SGF SOUNDING EXHIBITED AROUND 80 J/KG MLCINH.  THIS AND LIKELY
   NEUTRAL/DOWNWARD LARGE-SCALE MOTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING LEAD WAVE
   INTO W KY HAVE PROBABLY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEARTH OF SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION OVER SRN MO.
   
   UPWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE THROUGH THE EVENING...BOTH ALONG THE
   NOSE OF A SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE OZARKS AND AS LEFT-EXIT
   REGION OF THE 100+ KT 500 MB JET PUNCHES NEWD THIS EVENING.  STORMS
   OVER ERN KS SHOULD DEVELOP ENE...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE
   FARTHER E AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.  
   
   MCV DEPARTING INTO WCNTRL IL HAS ALLOWED THE COLD AIR TO OOZE INTO
   SRN MORGAN...BENTON...ST. CLAIR...VERNON COUNTIES IN MO AND ANY
   STORM THAT DEVELOPS/TRACKS N OF THESE COUNTIES WILL POSE MOSTLY A
   LARGE HAIL THREAT.  MEANWHILE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP S OF THIS LINE
   WILL BE EMBEDDED IN 300-400 M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH AND MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER.  AS SUCH...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  
   
   AS STORMS MOVE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF EXISTING WATCHES...A NEW WW
   WILL BE LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OZARKS.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/28/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...
   
   LAT...LON   37969168 37669161 37329166 36979184 36799212 36749248
               36759313 36809390 36939444 37249489 37999491 37959424
               38199351 38449296 38249241 38159179 37969168