MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN OK...SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 21...
   
   VALID 272349Z - 280045Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.
   
   ONE SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE ROUGHLY 240/45KT ALONG THE KS/OK
   BORDER BETWEEN ARKANSAS CITY AND BLACKWELL.  STORM HAS SPLIT WITH
   NRN MEMBER EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE FRONT AND BECOME AN ELEVATED
   HAILER OVER NRN COWLEY COUNTY.  SRN MEMBER WILL POSE THE STRONGEST
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO AS IT
   TRACKS ENE INTO EXTREME SERN KS THROUGH AT LEAST 0030Z.  EFFECTIVE
   SRH ACROSS SERN KS CURRENTLY RUNS BETWEEN 200-235 M2/S2 WITH MLCAPES
   AROUND 1500 J/KG.  
   
   ELSEWHERE...DRYLINE HAS MIXED TO ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN CNTRL
   OK...BUT ARCS BACK INTO NCNTRL OK TO THE FRONT/LOW OVER SRN WOODS
   COUNTY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CUMULUS OVER NRN MAJOR/SRN ALFALFA
   COUNTIES MAY DEVELOP INTO ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT WILL TRACK INTO
   NCNTRL OK/SERN KS EARLY THIS EVENING.  SIGNAL IN LATEST SHORT-TERM
   MESOSCALE MODELS...HOWEVER...IS FOR THE MAJORITY OF STORMS TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS/MO...WITH PERHAPS ELEVATED CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING ALONG/N OF THE SURGING COLD FRONT ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..RACY.. 02/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36749887 37589622 37569535 37089533 36659641 36179844
               36749887