MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0148
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CST SUN FEB 27 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KS...WCNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 271846Z - 271945Z
   
   ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS SCNTRL KS JUST
   NORTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SFC FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
   ROOTED NEAR 850MB WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH...OR EVEN EXCEED 1500
   J/KG.  LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SFC LOW WILL
   TRANSLATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER BEFORE SHIFTING
   INTO SWRN MO LATE THIS EVENING.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENSURE UPWARD
   EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED
   SUPERCELLS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.  CURRENT THINKING IS ANY
   MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF WIND
   SHIFT AND THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH A TORNADO WATCH AS CONDITIONS
   WARRANT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/27/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
   
   LAT...LON   38229855 39809396 39509251 38729310 37929554 37029840
               38229855