MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX THROUGH WRN AND N-CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240907Z - 241100Z
   
   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN
   AND N-CNTRL OK. ANY WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT
   WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.
   
   COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MID-MS VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK THEN WWD
   AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM WRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. UPPER
   50S-LOW 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ADVECTING EWD
   AND INTERCEPTING THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS SWRN OK AND NWRN TX RESULTING
   IN RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPE. STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING
   WITHIN TWO DISTINCT REGIMES. THE FIRST IS ACROSS WRN TX WHERE
   MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX IS
   INTERACTING WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...RESULTING IN
   HIGH BASED STORMS NEAR LUBBOCK. THE OTHER IS OVER NRN OK INTO SRN KS
   WHERE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO ELEVATED STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH TIME...THE
   DEEPER ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOISTER AND MORE
   UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER STORMS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK. STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MUCAPE AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35529697 34669876 33360032 33930065 35629967 36689850
               36939769 36839697 36289656 35529697