MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CST THU FEB 03 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN LA NEWD INTO W CENTRAL AND SWRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 040436Z - 041030Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF .05"/HR SHOULD SPREAD/EXPAND ACROSS
   THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ICE ACCUMULATION
   ON ROADS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
   
   LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER IS FORECAST TO
   CONTINUE INCREASING WITH TIME...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER
   TX/NRN MEXICO PROGRESSES EWD.  EVIDENCE OF INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS REVEALED BY WV AND RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN TX
   ATTM...AS INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES BENEATH
   MID-LEVEL CVA.  
   
   AS THIS ZONE OF FAVORABLE QG FORCING SPREADS EWD...EXPECT
   PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN LA TO INCREASE OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ATTM
   FARTHER W ACROSS NRN TX SHOULD REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW GIVEN
   COOLER AIR ALOFT...CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ATOP A SUB-FREEZING
   LOWER TROPOSPHERE E OF THE SABINE RIVER WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
   REMAIN LIQUID -- FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN.  
   
   AREAS OF NWRN LA -- NW OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY LFK /LUFKIN TX/ TO ELD
   /EL DORADO AR/ -- MAY EXPERIENCE PRIMARILY SNOW...AS THE LOWER
   TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THIS PORTION
   OF THE AREA DESPITE WARM ADVECTION.  HOWEVER...LOCATIONS FARTHER SE
   ACROSS MUCH OF LA AND INTO SWRN AND WRN MS WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED
   BY SEVERAL HOURS OF FREEZING RAIN -- WHICH MAY LAST INTO EARLY
   MORNING RUSH HOUR IN SOME AREAS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 02/04/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   LAT...LON   29989285 29999363 30629380 31889320 33189166 33308978
               32788944 31449048 30229200 29989285