MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0077
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TO SERN PA...MD PANHANDLE AND W CNTRL NJ
   
   CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 
   
   VALID 020139Z - 020715Z
   
   FREEZING RAIN...POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES ACROSS CNTRL
   PA...WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E TONIGHT. EXPECT RATES AROUND 0.05" TO
   0.10" PER 3 HOURS EXCEPT IN ANY HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS THAT MAY
   DEVELOP WHERE RATES MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER.
   
   01Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
   ACROSS MUCH OF PA INTO W CNTRL NJ. AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
   SLEET WERE MOVING INTO WRN PA AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD /ASSOCIATED
   WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 850 MB LOW NEAR ST.
   LOUIS/ TRACKS NEWD. 23Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED AN ELEVATED
   WARM NOSE AROUND 860-870 MB OF 3-6 C WITH SFC TEMPERATURES RANGING
   FROM THE LOW 20S TO NEAR 30 F ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE ONLY
   QUESTIONABLE AREA IS NEAR THE MARYLAND PANHANDLE WHERE SFC
   TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
   AS SFC LOW NOW OVER SRN IND/SWRN KY TRACKS E/NEWD AND ATTENDANT WARM
   FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.
   
   IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING MID LEVEL LOW
   PRESSURE SYSTEM...850 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW AS
   WILL MID LEVEL JET /40-50 KT/...LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING THROUGH
   THE SATURATED WARM LAYER. EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA BY
   03Z...REACHING W CNTRL NJ BY AROUND 06-09Z.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   39487725 39487804 39607861 39737903 39887914 40087923
               40327925 40547937 40707966 40817997 40948021 41058039
               41228057 41538063 41898049 42038021 42087947 41967881
               41817825 41517759 41417654 41317569 41117525 40977482
               40787457 40587445 40227442 39967469 39957484 39757537
               39487725