MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SWRN GA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
   
   VALID 012354Z - 020130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
   
   SVR POTENTIAL...WHILE BECOMING MRGL...WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
   HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN ERN PORTIONS WW AND EWD ACROSS
   PORTIONS WRN-CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FL.  EWD EXTENSION OF EXISTING WW
   OR SMALL/SHORT-LIVED ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE ISSUED.
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUED MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 40-45 KT
   ACROSS ERN AL AND WILL MOVE OVER WRN PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND OUT
   OF EXISTING WW AREA PRIOR TO SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT INLAND...FROM NEAR TOI ESEWD BETWEEN
   JAX-VLD...S OF WHICH INLAND AIR MASS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
   DEW POINTS UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F AND TEMPS COOLING INTO UPPER 60S
   THROUGH 02Z.  CLOSER TO COAST...SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WITH RELATIVELY
   HIGH STATIC STABILITY IS EVIDENT...INDUCED BY RELATIVELY COLD SHELF
   WATERS...WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY LOW 60S F.  THIS AIR
   MASS EXTENDS ROUGHLY 50-60 NM OFFSHORE...GRADING INTO MORE
   WELL-MODIFIED MARINE AIR WITH RELATIVELY RICH THETAE...AND DEW
   POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F.  MEANWHILE...CONFLUENCE LINE IS ANALYZED
   FROM NEAR CEW SWD THROUGH COASTAL OKALOOSA COUNTY THEN SSWWD OVER
   GULF...CORRESPONDING TO BKN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT INCLUDES
   ISOLATED TSTMS.  THIS FEATURE IS MOVING NEWD 20-25 KT.  WHILE MOST
   INTENSE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN OVER GULF...BAND OF STG TSTMS
   SHOULD PERSIST AS IT MOVES EWD IN REGIME OF FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW
   SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ATOP MARINE LAYER.  WINDS AOA 50-KT SVR CRITERIA
   -- EVIDENT ABOVE MARINE LAYER IN RADAR VELOCITY FIELDS -- MAY
   TRANSLATE DOWNWARD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS IN
   STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STG WITH ENLARGED
   HODOGRAPHS...AND BRIEF/MRGL TORNADO THREAT ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   TOTALLY.  A DISCRETE SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY EVOLVE FROM CONVECTION
   INITIATING ON CONFLUENCE LINE...HOWEVER SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE
   QUICKLY INTO AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY STG MLCINH...PER MODIFIED RUC
   SOUNDINGS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30308776 31238759 31908669 31698564 31368483 29948447
               29588500 29688520 29678537 29828544 29928537 30178584
               30378640 30338717 30308776