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Mesoscale Discussion 67 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA...WRN IL
CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
VALID 011636Z - 012230Z
SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND N/EWD AHEAD OF AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
PIVOTING TOWARDS THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE TO 2-3 IN/HR ACROSS NRN MO...AND INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z.
STRENGTHENING N-NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE A
NEWD SHIFT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BANDS INTO NRN MO AND WRN IL. THIS
WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DCVA AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL OK. SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING AROUND APPROACHING CYCLONE /WITH
40-50 KTS OF FLOW IN 285-295 K LAYER/ WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT. FOCUSED MESOSCALE BANDING /WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
FROM SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SLANTWISE INSTABILITY/ WILL BE SUPPORTED
BY LOW-MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC MAXIMUM SHIFTING INTO NRN MO.
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 IN/HR
ACROSS MUCH OF NRN MO...SPREADING INTO WRN IL AFTER 20Z. LOCALLY
HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOST INTENSE
MESOSCALE BANDS. ACROSS SRN IA...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD GENERALLY
RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 IN/HR.
..ROGERS.. 02/01/2011
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39248998 38399113 37259317 38109478 40459441 41679315
42049073 41468958 40718875 39748922 39248998
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