MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 312118Z - 312145Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
   FORECAST WITH A FEW STORMS PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.
   
   EARLY-MID AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS SHOWED CU/TCU
   FORMING ALONG A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES LOCATED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX.
   INITIAL CU FORMED ALONG A N/NWWD RETREATING CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE TO
   THE ENE OF SJT...WITH ADDITIONAL CU ALONG AN APPARENT DRY LINE
   EXTENDING NWD FROM SJT TO A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  THE APEX OF
   THIS COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE...
   AND THEN EXTENDED WNWWD INTO ERN NM.
   
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S ALONG THE NRN EXTENT OF THE
   MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500 J PER KG/.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  INITIAL
   ACTIVITY FORMING ALONG RETREATING MOISTURE SURGE MAY BECOME SURFACE
   BASED FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY BECOMING UNDERCUT
   BY SWD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THUS...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT WITH ELEVATED STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 01/31/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   LAT...LON   32879895 32119869 31469908 31620023 31920074 32660138
               33070082 33329976 32879895