MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE
   ARKLATEX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301847Z - 302045Z
   
   THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...BENEATH A MID-LEVEL COLD TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
   AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED
   IN A NARROW PRE-SURFACE COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR
   THE WACO/TEMPLE AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD TEXARKANA...WHERE MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND COULD
   INCREASE A BIT FURTHER WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING.  THIS IS
   GENERALLY WELL NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER JET CORE NOSING ACROSS THE
   WESTERN GULF COAST REGION...AND DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE
   RATHER WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF THE
   RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WHICH COULD AT LEAST APPROACH SEVERE
   LIMITS.  FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
   MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS
   TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION MAY SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 21-22Z.  IT
   IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME
   SEVERE...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
   SHORT-LIVED...AND TEND TO DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY BECOMES EVEN MORE
   WIDESPREAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 01/30/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
   LAT...LON   32599660 33799502 33889419 33249315 32049394 30759596
               30979698 31399717 32599660