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Mesoscale Discussion 45 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CST TUE JAN 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...
VALID 260020Z - 260115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 7 CONTINUES.
QLCS/DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ESE ACROSS CNTRL/SW
FL...WELL-AHEAD OF MESOSCALE MODEL TIMING. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE HOW FAR S THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE.
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
FROM AREAS NW-N OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE VERO BEACH-MELBOURNE
REGION THROUGH 01Z. HERE...CORE OF SSWLY LLJ OF 40-50 KTS
EXISTS...YIELDING STRONGLY VEERING 0-1KM PROFILES WITH SRH OF
350-400 M2/S2 BASED OFF THE MLB VWP.
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE LLJ WILL BEGIN SHIFTING NE AWAY FROM FL BY
LATE EVENING AS THE SRN STREAM WAVE ACCELERATES ENE. AIR MASS ACROSS
S FL WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE...AND WITH AT LEAST WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE S
OF THE CURRENT WATCH THIS EVENING. WIND PROFILES BECOME
INCREASINGLY VEERED WITH TIME WITH AT LEAST 35-40 KTS OF H85-H7
FLOW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY AT LEAST POSE AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS S FL.
..RACY.. 01/26/2011
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26388254 27728147 28358081 28658059 28408018 27318009
26298054 25838133 25798198 26138246 26388254
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