MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0333 PM CST TUE JAN 18 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...FAR SERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 182133Z - 182300Z
   
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT WILL EXIST OVER SERN
   LA AND FAR SERN MS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WW DOES
   NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   SURFACE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LA GULF COAST...WITH
   TEMPERATURES OVER SERN LA WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S F AND DEWPOINTS
   INCREASING INTO THE LOW 60S F. CONVECTION OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH
   WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SRN LA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A LINE WITH
   EMBEDDED BOW STRUCTURE. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG...WITH POSITIVE CAPE
   AREA LOCATED BELOW MIXED PHASE REGION SUGGESTING LIGHTNING IS
   UNLIKELY. NEVERTHELESS...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER SERN
   LA COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW/MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS
   WILL FAVOR RAPID FORWARD PROGRESSION /AROUND 40 KT/ AND THE
   POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO THE SURFACE. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
   MARGINAL THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH
   LOSS OF HEATING.
   
   ..GARNER.. 01/18/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...
   
   LAT...LON   30549183 30919087 30848973 30418883 29208919 29089078
               29549192 30549183