MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CST SAT JAN 01 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...
   
   VALID 011832Z - 012000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3 CONTINUES.
   
   MODEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO REMAINS FROM SRN AL
   INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND EXISTS A SMALL DISTANCE EAST OF WW 3 WITH LINE OF STORMS MOVING
   THROUGH THE CNTRL FL PANHANDLE.
   
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG WARM
   CONVEYOR BELT WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM SRN AL THROUGH THE
   WRN FL PANHANDLE. STORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A LINE ACROSS THE CNTRL
   FL PANHANDLE WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT TRAILS SWWD INTO THE
   N-CNTRL GULF. EAST OF THE LINE SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM A DRIER AND
   MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE LIMITING INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
   SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...A MARGINAL THREAT EXISTS FOR MAINLY AN
   ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE
   CNTRL FL PANHANDLE. WEST OF THE LINE...WIDESPREAD SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
   CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
   NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN
   THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER WHICH IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR.
   DESPITE A LIMITED THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG
   SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND CONVECTION APPEARS ROOTED
   CLOSE ENOUGH TO SURFACE FOR AT LEAST A MODEST RISK OF AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO.
   
   ..DIAL.. 01/01/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
   LAT...LON   30618830 31848678 32168553 31268518 29798481 30258698
               30308807 30618830