MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0530 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK...WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...
   
   VALID 192230Z - 192330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES.
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE WITH LONG-LIVED
   SUPERCELLS ACROSS N-CNTRL OK...AND WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   PROBABLE FARTHER E/SE ALONG WARM FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT 2-3
   HOURS. AREAS E/SE OF WW 190 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A LIKELY WW THIS
   EVENING.
   
   AS OF 2220Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
   AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL WERE LOCATED ACROSS NRN WATONGA COUNTY AND NEAR
   THE GARFIELD/KINGFISHER/LOGAN COUNTY BORDERS. RECENT VISIBLE
   SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURRING SEWD INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE THAT EXTENDED FROM 30 SE END
   TO 25 N MLC TO 25 S HOT AS OF 22Z AND ALONG DRYLINE FROM WATONGA
   COUNTY SUPERCELL SWD TO 20 NW SPS. REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA
   INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH EFFECTIVE SRH AOA 300 M2/S2 INVOF WARM FRONTAL
   ZONE. MODIFIED 18Z OUN RAOB SUGGESTS LOW LFC HEIGHTS AND MODEST
   SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
   POTENTIAL LONG-LIVED/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
   
   FARTHER W...TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP INTO AN AXIS OF
   PEAK INSTABILITY /WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAKER AND VEERED TO THE SW PER LATEST
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE ERN
   FRINGE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
   SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/19/2010
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36039839 36299816 36439685 35929534 35229423 34749369
               34149354 33749377 33789463 34229591 34299715 34289826
               34469854 36039839