MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT WED APR 29 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 291959Z - 292130Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
   INITIATE ACROSS SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WEAK
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY TEMPER THE AMPLITUDE AND AREAL EXTENT OF THE
   OVERALL THREAT. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT TCU BUILDUPS
   INCREASING ACROSS FAR SERN CO NEAR A CYCLONE CENTERED AROUND 30 SE
   LAA AND IN PATCHES ALONG THE DRY LINE THAT EXTENDED SWD THROUGH THE
   TX PANHANDLE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF TSTM INITIATION SHOULD BE NEAR
   THE SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE APPEARS GREATEST. THIS SHOULD THEN
   EVOLVE EWD INTO AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LYING FROM
   SWRN KS THROUGH WRN TX WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
   AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE RATHER MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW
   BETWEEN BELTS OF STRONGER NRN/SRN STREAM WLYS...VEERED KINEMATIC
   PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
   WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 04/29/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...
   
   LAT...LON   38280192 38240134 38070104 37450052 36440039 35100047
               34240045 33850093 33690182 35490176 37090163 37620180
               37810248 38100240 38280192