MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0641 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK AND NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553...
   
   VALID 162341Z - 170115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553
   CONTINUES.
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING
   SEVERE THREAT AND THE NEED FOR A WW ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS.
   
   STRONGEST ONGOING STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BECOME CONFINED TO AREAS
   NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A SOUTHWESTWARD ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ...WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING SOUTH OF WW INTO
   THE CHILDRESS/WICHITA FALLS AREA OF NORTHWEST TEXAS.  BOUNDARY IS
   ADVANCING TOWARD THE MORE STRONGLY HEATED...DRIER AND DEEP MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE
   TEMPERATURES PEAKED JUST ABOVE 100F.  AND...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE
   BEEN DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
   WEST OF CHILDRESS INTO AREAS NORTH OF MIDLAND.  
   
   STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FORCING APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL
   BAROCLINIC ZONE...NEAR THE NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   JET...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
   TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION.  THIS IS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
   INCREASING/CONSOLIDATING STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND 02-03Z. 
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION BENEATH THE
   NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...STORMS MAY NOT
   PERSIST LONG AFTER SUNSET.
   
   THERE IS SUGGESTION AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE THAT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
   STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO/THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS MAY BE ALONG THE
   MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   AND INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL POTENTIAL IN STRONGER
   STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A
   MORE PROMINENT RISK IN SLOW MOVING BAND/TRAINING CELLS WITHIN HIGH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS /IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES/.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/16/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   32930252 33680193 34700175 35670153 36100183 36700188
   36819965 36719810 36189685 35259591 34359605 33859656
   33809770 34039914 33939972 32180183