MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...NWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051613Z - 051745Z
   
   TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG COLD FRONT NEAR 18Z ACROSS CNTRL
   KS AND INTO NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FORCED ASCENT INCREASES
   ALONG BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. AN EXTREMELY
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY...WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO/HAIL/WIND
   THREATS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 18Z.
   
   16Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN 989 MB LOW PRESSURE
   CENTROID INVOF EAR WITH N/S-ORIENTED COLD FRONT STRETCHING INTO
   HARPER COUNTY OK TO A DRY LINE INTERSECTION IN THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE. CU DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED ALONG THE FRONT INDICATIVE
   OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE BOUNDARY AS POTENT SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. LATEST OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CAPPING INVERSION RAPIDLY WEAKENING
   ESPECIALLY ACROSS S-CNTRL KS...WITH MLCAPES ALREADY AOA 2500 J/KG.
   KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE INTENSE THROUGH THE LOW/MID-LEVELS...AIDING IN
   EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES/HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY RAPIDLY SHIFTS EWD. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS
   HOW QUICKLY THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE MODE FROM SUPERCELLS TO
   LINE-SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME ROUGHLY
   PARALLEL TO THE INITIATION BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY MODULATE THE
   OVERALL SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT VERSUS A SEVERE WIND THREAT LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
   
   40129742 40029664 38139677 36899732 35989876 35969965
   36180016 36909986 38439923 39599909 40059909 40139797