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Mesoscale Discussion 685 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT FRI MAY 04 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...PARTS OF WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041953Z - 042200Z
TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...ONE OR MORE
TORNADO WATCHES WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING ALONG
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRY LINE...INTO THE VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION. RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
INCREASING INTO THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE...THOUGH MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF AMPLIFIED WESTERN TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ALREADY LIFTING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY DOES EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...MUCH OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR
AS EARLY AS 22-23Z. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE WHERE FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST NEAR SURFACE LOW...BUT INITIATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS MAY QUICKLY FOLLOW SUITE.
STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE VERY RAPID ONCE CAP
BREAKS. AND...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH
40-50 KT CYCLONIC WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 04/00-01Z.
..KERR.. 05/04/2007
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
38660150 39630029 39799943 38919814 37039815 35499848
34599966 34380083 35150103 35890059 36590025 36920043
37260135
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