MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0758 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782...
   
   VALID 220058Z - 220300Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES/HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR
   FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 782 INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
   MO/NORTHWEST AR.
   
   SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
   OF TORNADO WATCH 782 IN CENTRAL KS...AS OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE
   CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE KS TURNPIKE. GRADUAL INFLUX OF
   MODESTLY RICHER THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WITH OBJECTIVE
   DIAGNOSTICS AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECTIVE OF MLCAPES RANGING
   FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...TO 1000-1250 J/KG
   ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY...HIGHLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 MS/S2 OR
   GREATER WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS CURRENTLY A CONCERN EAST OF WW 782 /REF
   00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR.
   LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY MODESTLY
   DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AMIDST A
   STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/22/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   36949698 38029531 37299360 36079354 35489480 35139621
   35239710