MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0556 PM CST WED DEC 14 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN / S-CNTRL LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 895...
   
   VALID 142356Z - 150130Z
   
   THROUGH 02Z...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST ACROSS
   ERN HALF OF WW AREA...MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-10.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONSHORE PORTION OF QUASI-LINEAR
   MCS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO WITH MOST INTENSE
   CONVECTION OBSERVED OFFSHORE SE OF LCH AS OF 2345Z.  LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT FROM VICINITY OF ESF EWD
   TO S OF JAN...WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONTAL FEATURE FARTHER TO THE
   S...EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE ENE OF LCH SEWD TO N OF HUM. 
   AIR MASS S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT IS COMPARATIVELY MORE MOIST
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S...HOWEVER POOR LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE LARGELY INHIBITING DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.
   
   GIVEN STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS...THREAT OF AN
   ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT CAN
   BECOME SUSTAINED ALONG/S OF THIS SECONDARY WARM FRONT. 
   CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS PRIMARY
   FACTOR LIMITING MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 12/14/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
   
   29359282 29929284 30519250 30669217 30669144 30079129
   29469139 29119153 29119231