MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2387
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 848...
   
   VALID 061644Z - 061845Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS ERN OH AND FAR
   WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS. AS A RESULT...WW 848 WILL BE
   REPLACED WITH A NEW WW.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN
   OH. SEVERAL LINES OF CONVECTION ARE ONGOING IN THE ERN PART OF WW
   848 AHEAD OF A STRONG BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LINES
   EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL ALLOW FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT
   SPREADING EWD WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE LINE TO INTENSIFY. AS A
   RESULT...WW 848 WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDING LOCALLY IN ERN OH AND
   ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF PA. THE STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASING
   INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   38938252 39428278 40788174 42048088 42348006 41847937
   39418130