MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2382
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0340 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OH/TN VLYS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 060940Z - 061115Z
   
   STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING ACROSS IL WITH
   STRONGEST BELT OF ASCENT SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN OH AND SERN
   LWR MI ATTM.  STRONGEST LLJ AXIS WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT NWD FROM THE
    TN VLY TO THE OH VLY WITH 50-70 KTS IN THE H85-H7 LAYER.  STRONG
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS COMPENSATING FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   SRN LWR MI SWD INTO WRN OH TO SUPPORT A LINEAR MCS.  FARTHER
   S...INSTABILITY WAS STRONGER OWING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER/MOISTER
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE...A MIXED
   MODE OF LINE SEGMENTS/DISCRETE CELLS ARE BEING FAVORED.
   
   GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A NARROW
   AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAINTAINED JUST AHEAD OF THE TSTMS
   THROUGH THE MORNING FROM CNTRL OH SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE
   TN.  OVERALL STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED ROTATING
   STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL OH SWD INTO MIDDLE
   TN...CONTINUING A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT EAST OF THE CURRENT
   TORNADO WATCH 845.  AS SUCH...NEW WW/S WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY OVER
   PARTS OF THE OH/TN VLYS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   35878712 41668234 41678075 36788413 35838511