MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2325
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 07 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 071609Z - 071815Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
   CAROLINAS...WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED...
   
   LONG-LIVED UPPER VORT...POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...HAS LIFTED
   TO A POSITION NEAR THE SC/GA COAST.  CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
   DEEPENED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEAR THIS WEAK
   CIRCULATION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE VERY HIGH ACROSS THIS
   REGION...IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...HENCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...BUT
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF THIS NNEWD EJECTING
   FEATURE.  PARTIAL HEATING WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL IN ADDITIONAL TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF POSSIBLE SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 10/07/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...
   
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