MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0418 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 192118Z - 192315Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL CONTINUE TO
   MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
   
   ALTHOUGH MUCH OF LOWER MI HAS BEEN MIRED IN CLOUD COVER AND
   COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. NARROW WARM SECTOR PRESENT AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI AT THIS
   TIME PER OBSERVATIONAL DATA...WITH COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DRY SLOT
   SURGING EWD ACROSS NRN WI/U.P. OF MI. GIVEN MATERIALIZATION OF
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY E/NE INTO LOWER MI...STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD
   BE CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT. GRAND
   RAPIDS/ALPENA WSR-88D VADS AND REGIONAL TAMDAR DATA INDICATIVE OF
   45-50 KTS WSW FLOW IN 1-6 KM LAYER. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE
   DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TORNADO
   POSSIBLE AS WELL INVOF EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 09/19/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
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