MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 PM CDT MON SEP 05 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MN...WRN WI...SERN SD...NWRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...771...772...
   
   VALID 060418Z - 060545Z
   
   WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
   THE NRN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. A NEW WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AS WW 770
   EXPIRES.
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN TONIGHT FEATURES
   STRONGLY DIFFLUENT AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP 50KT SWLY LOW LEVEL
   JET. RESULTANT STRONG ASCENT IS CONTINUING TO ACT ON WARM AND MOIST
   AIR MASS AND FUEL WELL-ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER
   THE REGION. ONE ARCING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN MN INTO CNTRL
   MN WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   LINE...OVER NCNTRL MN. RECENTLY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING ON
   THIS COMPLEX INDICATING PERHAPS A GRADUAL DECLINE IN INTENSITY.
   HOWEVER...A FEW LEWP SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BOWING LINE WILL REMAIN A
   CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   THE SECOND BOWING COMPLEX EXTENDS FROM WCNTRL MN ACROSS SWRN MN AND
   TRAILS WWD INTO SERN SD. A WELL-DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESO HIGH
   EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ACROSS ERN SD. LOW LEVEL JET
   IMPINGING ON THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
   REGENERATIVE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN. LINE
   SEGMENTS ORIENTED FAVORABLY TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
   POSE A THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED AS THIS
   ACTIVITY TRACKS GRADUALLY ESEWD ACROSS SERN SD AND INTO NWRN IA OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 09/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43119456 43079606 42929658 42959963 43749934 44209613
   45309564 45959538 46749425 47939386 48569352 48459131
   43569326