MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2106
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0754 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 753...
   
   VALID 290054Z - 290200Z
   
   WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 4Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT TRENDS
   CONTINUE AND ACTIVITY MOVES SE FROM WW.  MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL
   WILL LINGER TO ITS E AND SE.  PER COORD/W TOPEKA...NERN KS COUNTIES
   W OF LAWRENCE HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM WW BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   PASSAGE AND LACK OF ADDITIONAL/SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT
   LIES JUST BEHIND SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS AREA FROM MKC-EMP -- WITH
   MOST NEW NERN KS/NWRN MO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO SHIFT
   QUICKLY BEHIND BOUNDARY.  FARTHER NE...STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
   MULTICELL COMPLEX -- NOW EVIDENT FROM DECATUR COUNTY IA SWWD ROUGHLY
   ALONG I-35 TO NRN FRINGES OF KC METRO AREA -- IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW AREA WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.  FOREGOING AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
   UNSTABLE ABOVE SFC FOR ABOUT 50-60 NM BEFORE REACHING RELATIVELY
   LOW-THETAE OUTFLOW POOL LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL
   MO.  EXPECT WEAKENING OF THIS ACTIVITY BY ABOUT 3Z AS THIS
   OCCURS...AND AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM SFC BECAUSE OF
   DIABATIC COOLING.  INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOWS FROM N-CENTRAL MO AND
   NERN KS COMPLEXES SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD INVOF MO/KS BORDER S OF
   MKC...ASSOCIATED LIFT CAUSING SCATTERED TSTMS FOR SEVERAL MORE
   HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000
   J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  PRIND SEVERE
   POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR ADDITIONAL WW BECAUSE OF
   COOLING SFC LAYER AND WEAK DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   39219702 39099645 39149576 39339522 39549486 40079429
   40469413 40709391 40599344 40329311 40009303 39779337
   39419360 39069358 38819354 38379362 38029394 37829438
   37829482 38089549 38689637