MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1900
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN GA...CNTRL/ERN SC...FL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 
   
   VALID 291758Z - 291930Z
   
   ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO
   AREAS SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  VERY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...IS WARMING INTO THE
   90S...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER
   CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  THUS...DESPITE WEAKLY SHEARED FLOW
   REGIME...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE 
   HAIL... IN STRONGER STORMS.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZES...PERHAPS
   SURFACE FRONT...SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AND
   BEYOND THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/29/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   32918449 33328307 33548176 33918090 34388011 34007940
   33287961 32648065 32058140 31028165 30068162 29098126
   28688094 27698054 26688090 25838082 26088142 26828182
   27528201 28228217 28988247 30258330 30458435 30318473
   30908525 31618459 32388454