MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0645 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 172345Z - 180145Z
   
   STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN MN DURING THE
   PAST HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL...BUT OVERALL THREAT
   APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. UNLESS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF
   SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION...A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT
   BE NECESSARY.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MN SWWD THROUGH SWRN MN AND WILL
   CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT. IT APPEARS STRONGER FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE
   DAKOTAS IS FINALLY OVERTAKING THE FRONT. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN
   INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER N CNTRL MN THIS EVENING.
   STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL
   ZONE. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IN VICINITY OF FRONT MAY
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
   FRONT TO ROTATE. WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY TEND TO
   LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/17/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
   
   47749068 46219246 44689382 44649455 46709459 48469305