MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 PM CDT WED JUL 06 2005
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO NERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 
   
   VALID 061803Z - 061930Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WW
   MAY BE REQUIRED BY 19-20Z.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS/SMALL CB
   DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CO FRONT RANGE SWD THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
   RANGE IN NERN NM. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 50S HAVE ALLOWED IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE
   WITH MLCAPES OF NOW AROUND 1000 J/KG. FURTHER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON
    SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN CO INTO ERN NM
   WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2000 J/KG.
   
   LOCAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE WEAKER MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW THAN IN
   PREVIOUS DAYS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS. GIVEN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL
   WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST S OR SSELY STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST
   THAT INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
   WITH TIME...STORM PROPAGATION ALONG ANY ORGANIZING COLD POOLS MAY
   SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO AND NERN NM
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/06/2005
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...
   
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